Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6E 0x6edd…728c other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23,615 (+51%) realized +$23,654 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%6W / 6L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$2,216per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$2,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$189

7 days−$423

14 days−$423

30 days−$423

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-20.4%	-28.0%	43%	43%	-31.9%
≤30d	7	-20.4%	-28.0%	43%	43%	-31.9%
≤90d	12	+4.2%	-5.7%	50%	50%	+38.6%
all	12	+4.2%	-5.7%	50%	50%	+38.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.7%	50%	+38.6%
10% ← realistic here	-14.7%	50%	+25.4%
15%	-23.0%	50%	+13.2%
20%	-30.5%	50%	+2.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late -42% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4,156 vs −$218 · ×19.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×19.07 per $1 lost it wins $19.07

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage

Net worth$2,061

Realized+$23,654

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses6 / 6

Open positions9

Markets (closed)12 / 21

History coverage70d

Avg bet$2,216

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$500	$480	−$20 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	43¢	44¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	43¢	38¢	$100	$90	−$10 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$203	+$189	+93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$303	+$166	+55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$202	−$200	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$203	−$200	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$506	−$500	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$203	+$222	+109%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	May 10	$40,010	+$20,666	+52%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	Apr 19	$250	−$250	-100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	Apr 19	$57	−$57	-100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	Apr 19	$1,665	+$2,204	+132%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e	Apr 14	$711	+$1,491	+210%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$202	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$303	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$203	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$303	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$506	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$101	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$203	4d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	4¢	$57	65d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	33¢	$250	65d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	SELL Yes	99¢	$307	65d
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e	BUY Yes	32¢	$711	65d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	43¢	$1,000	69d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	43¢	$665	69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20,000	69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20,000	69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	69d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,060.54 · official $2,123.37 · 35 history records