Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6edb…9e84 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$68 (+12%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$124
sports 5% −$27
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 59% +7.2%
≤30d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 59% +7.2%
≤90d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 59% +7.2%
all 29 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 59% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 59% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 52% -3.1%
15% -18.8% 41% -12.5%
20% -26.7% 31% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 10.353416701042722% → late 9.461398652006077% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$22 +106%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.80 · official $8.80 (match) · 69 history records