Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ed5…ce97 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$446 (-11%) realized −$471 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%49W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$20
14 days+$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$36
crypto 30% −$152
sports 14% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.2% -51.4% 17% 17% -6.0%
≤30d 9 -64.2% -67.6% 11% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 11 -65.7% -69.0% 9% 9% -32.2%
all 88 -12.2% -20.5% 56% 48% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 48% -20.4%
10% -28.1% 39% -28.0%
15% -35.1% 23% -34.9%
20% -41.4% 15% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$35 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses49 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage150d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $12 $37 +$25 (+206%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $257 −$7 -3%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$71 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $16 −$5 -28%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $190 −$187 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 02 $15 +$2 +15%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 26 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 26 $30 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 26 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 26 $25 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 26 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 26 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 26 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 26 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 26 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 26 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 26 $25 −$19 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 25 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 24 $21 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 24 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 24 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 24 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $150 +$38 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 12 $18 +$7 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 41¢ $247 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $250 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $257 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $273 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 62d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $190 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $17 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 119d
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $80 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $23 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $22 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $11 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.67 · official $279.38 · 170 history records