Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6E 0x6ed3…8dfc sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+8%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate88%22W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$4
other 38% +$1
world 15% $0
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.3% -2.0% 80% 60% +0.1%
≤30d 21 +13.9% +3.0% 90% 81% +2.5%
≤90d 25 +13.0% +2.2% 88% 80% +2.0%
all 25 +13.0% +2.2% 88% 80% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 80% +2.0%
10% -7.6% 48% -7.8%
15% -16.5% 36% -16.7%
20% -24.7% 8% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses22 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage33d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 $0 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 24 $1 $0 +21%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik May 20 $1 $0 +36%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $1 $0 +34%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomo May 20 $1 $0 +36%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild May 20 $1 $0 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Remy Bertola May 20 $1 $0 +20%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1 $0 +16%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 16 $1 $0 +32%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Niels McDonald May 16 $1 $0 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $2 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea BUY Karen Khachanov 82¢ $1 22d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 25d
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $1 25d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 25d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomo BUY Polina Kudermetova 73¢ $1 25d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Emilio Nava 69¢ $1 25d
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 88¢ $1 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Remy Bertola BUY Facundo Acosta 83¢ $1 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 27d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $1 29d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 30d
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Niels McDonald BUY Ignacio Buse 89¢ $1 30d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 31d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 73¢ $1 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 78¢ $1 32d
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 32d
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 32d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 54 history records