Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6E 0x6ed2…203f economics 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 45% $0
world 37% −$1
politics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage90d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $299 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $98 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $98 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $98 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $98 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $98 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $98 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $98 23d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $99 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $99 73d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 94¢ $99 91d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 94¢ $99 91d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $99 91d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $99 91d
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 92d
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records