trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +10.2% | -0.3% | 100% | 0% | -0.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 50% | 0% | -12.6% |
| all | 18 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 67% | 11% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 11% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 6% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $162 | $162 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Jun 16 | $979 | +$100 | +10% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | May 25 | $562 | −$115 | -20% |
| Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Apr 03 | $204 | +$11 | +5% |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 20 | $204 | −$61 | -30% |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Mar 10 | $153 | −$34 | -22% |
| Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Mar 10 | $150 | +$7 | +5% |
| Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? | Mar 10 | $247 | +$28 | +11% |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Feb 23 | $247 | −$71 | -29% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Feb 23 | $150 | +$1 | +0% |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | Feb 23 | $150 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Feb 09 | $150 | +$7 | +4% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 05 | $589 | −$4 | -1% |
| Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem | Feb 04 | $225 | +$8 | +4% |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside | Feb 04 | $200 | +$53 | +27% |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | Jan 29 | $97 | +$2 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 26 | $200 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Jan 15 | $150 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio | Jan 12 | $200 | −$32 | -16% |