Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ecb…2464 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-28%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +85% what you keep after slip
Net edge+85%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$1
sports 41% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+85.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +104.5% +85.0% 100% 100% +85.0%
≤30d 1 +104.5% +85.0% 100% 100% +85.0%
≤90d 1 +104.5% +85.0% 100% 100% +85.0%
all 1 +104.5% +85.0% 100% 100% +85.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.0% 100% +85.0%
10% +67.3% 100% +67.3%
15% +51.1% 100% +51.1%
20% +36.3% 100% +36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.11 · official $4.11 (match) · 6 history records