Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eca…de96 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 32% −$10
sports 11% +$38
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 99 +0.9% -8.7% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×12.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage124d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $240 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $536 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $299 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $487 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $453 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $528 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $485 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $407 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 10d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 10d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $250 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $250 23d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 23d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $259 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $259 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $284 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $284 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $286 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records