Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ec8…c1e5 politics 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,028 (-0%) realized −$1,028 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%35W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,306per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$77
politics 38% −$108
sports 14% −$822
world 5% −$51
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +2.0% -7.7% 12% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 4% -10.6%
all 178 +1.9% -7.8% 20% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -9.9%
10% -16.6% 10% -18.6%
15% -24.7% 8% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,954) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$814
Realized−$1,028
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses35 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,306
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $815 $814 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,404 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $948 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,746 −$6 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,954 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,105 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $958 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $868 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,257 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,941 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,399 −$5 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $871 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $58 +$63 +109%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,221 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,868 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $52 +$38 +73%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,227 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,706 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $958 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $417 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $6,480 −$7 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,141 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,999 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,113 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,381 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $650 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $710 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $59 +$53 +90%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $607 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $663 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $62 +$60 +97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,686 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $815 52m
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $808 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $809 4h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $861 6h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $862 7h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $871 2d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $872 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 2d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $829 2d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $830 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $948 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $999 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $958 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,205 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,207 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $956 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $814.33 · official $814.33 (match) · 597 history records