Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ec4…12ca crypto 20 markets active 4d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+2%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1
sports 24% +$167
tech 12% −$1
crypto 12% −$38
world 11% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -16.6% -24.6% 40% 15% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 15% -7.7%
10% -31.8% 15% -16.5%
15% -38.4% 15% -24.6%
20% -44.4% 15% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage124d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $9 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Mar 13 $175 +$169 +96%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 10 $671 +$1 +0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 10 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Mar 10 $779 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Mar 10 $755 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 10 $1,368 −$1 -0%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? Mar 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Mar 10 $634 +$2 +0%
Will Mike White win Survivor Season 50? Mar 10 $639 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 10 $65 −$19 -29%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12AM ET Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 3AM ET Mar 01 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 7AM ET Mar 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 3PM ET Mar 01 $7 +$7 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 7AM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 25 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 100¢ $3 4d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? BUY No 100¢ $3 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $9 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 23d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 51¢ $175 98d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $41 99d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $631 99d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $671 99d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $726 99d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $724 99d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 99¢ $733 99d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 99¢ $45 99d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 99¢ $779 99d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $670 99d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $86 99d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $755 99d
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? SELL No 99¢ $646 99d
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? SELL No 99¢ $18 99d
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? BUY No 100¢ $665 99d
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? SELL No 99¢ $703 99d
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? BUY No 100¢ $703 99d
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $615 99d
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $616 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? SELL No 96¢ $625 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? SELL No 96¢ $11 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 96¢ $634 99d
Will Mike White win Survivor Season 50? SELL No 100¢ $639 99d
Will Mike White win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 100¢ $639 99d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $46 99d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $65 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records