Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ec4…d966 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+5%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$22
other 42% +$26
crypto 14% −$18
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 44% -2.9%
≤30d 52 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 44% -2.9%
≤90d 66 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 44% -4.9%
all 66 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 44% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -4.9%
10% -20.0% 41% -14.0%
15% -27.7% 41% -22.3%
20% -34.8% 35% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage87d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$3 -32%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$20 +650%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 −$7 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 +$6 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$10 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +249%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $9 +$7 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 55¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 17¢ $4 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 43¢ $10 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $10 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 45h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.91 · official $49.92 (match) · 114 history records