Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ec2…63a6 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$556
crypto 5% −$224
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -80.0% -81.9% 20% 0% -44.4%
≤90d 33 -57.4% -61.5% 42% 0% -15.4%
all 33 -57.4% -61.5% 42% 0% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 0% -15.4%
10% -65.2% 0% -23.5%
15% -68.5% 0% -30.9%
20% -71.6% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$50 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions48
Markets (closed)33 / 20
History coverage67d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $7 $72 +$65 (+950%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $7 $59 +$52 (+759%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $7 $44 +$37 (+539%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $7 $43 +$36 (+527%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $7 $35 +$28 (+409%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $7 $27 +$20 (+296%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $26 +$19 (+278%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+194%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $122 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 06 $119 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $118 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $11,783 +$6 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 13? Apr 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 12? Apr 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? Apr 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 10? Apr 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $405 −$405 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 14d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 22d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 26d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 28d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 36d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 97¢ $119 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $119 55d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $118 62d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 63d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11,788 63d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 63d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 63d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 63d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10,538 63d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $112 64d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $112 65d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 66d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $112 67d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $405 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.04 · official $538.08 (match) · 178 history records