Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ebf…49e5 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-9%) realized −$1 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$10
other 17% −$8
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -54.0% -58.4% 0% 0% -29.7%
all 2 -54.0% -58.4% 0% 0% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.4% 0% -29.7%
10% -62.4% 0% -36.5%
15% -66.0% 0% -42.6%
20% -69.3% 0% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage119d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $150 −$10 (-6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? May 01 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 35m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $166 1h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 14d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 33d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 35d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 35d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 35d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 42d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 48d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.72 · official $156.72 (match) · 49 history records