Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ebf…d927 sports 19 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$340 (+82%) realized +$340 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$25
other 42% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+77.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +96.2% +77.5% 53% 53% +62.0%
≤30d 19 +96.2% +77.5% 53% 53% +62.0%
≤90d 19 +96.2% +77.5% 53% 53% +62.0%
all 19 +96.2% +77.5% 53% 53% +62.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +77.5% 53% +62.0%
10% ← realistic here +60.5% 53% +46.5%
15% +45.0% 53% +32.3%
20% +30.8% 47% +19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +105% → late +88% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$18 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$22 +49%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$53 +256%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$41 +132%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$4 -11%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$57 +955%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 +$236 +759%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$27 +132%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$21 +103%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes $0 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 38¢ $74 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $21 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $72 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $33 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $6 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $267 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $48 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $38 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records