Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ebd…a361 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%127W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 19% -12.3%
≤30d 61 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 232 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 25% -15.4%
all 232 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 25% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 25% -15.4%
10% -26.5% 12% -23.5%
15% -33.6% 5% -30.9%
20% -40.1% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses127 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage60d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $57 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $7 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1041 history records