trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 44% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 44% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 27 | +0.6% | -8.9% | 48% | 7% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 7% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 7% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 7% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 7% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 48¢ | $38 | $35 | −$3 (-8%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-86%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 15 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $55 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $46 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of | Mar 21 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 21? | Mar 19 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $32 | −$16 | -49% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $29 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Mar 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? | Mar 13 | $2 | −$1 | -70% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? | Mar 13 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in March? | Mar 13 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 12 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Mar 11 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? | Mar 11 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| San Diego State vs. UNLV | Mar 06 | $15 | +$20 | +138% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Mar 05 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Mercyhurst | Mar 05 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |