Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6ebc…6a14 crypto 73 markets active 5d ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate81%59W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$5
other 23% −$10
weather 5% $0
world 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$15
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.2% -39.6% 67% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 8 -37.4% -43.4% 62% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 24 -12.4% -20.8% 83% 0% -9.7%
all 73 -14.3% -22.5% 81% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -29.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -36.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -42.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses59 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage254d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May May 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 9? Apr 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 25? Mar 31 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $76 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 12? Mar 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 1? Mar 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 6? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 5? Mar 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? Feb 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 05 $42 +$3 +7%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? Feb 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 21? Jan 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 21? Jan 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 22? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 16? Jan 20 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 11 Jan 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 6? Jan 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 4? Jan 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 30? Jan 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 25? Dec 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 20? Dec 25 $43 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 15-21? Dec 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $75 17d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY No 0¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 42d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May BUY No 100¢ $77 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $77 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $77 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $76 61d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $77 71d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $77 74d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $77 79d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $76 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $76 88d
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 89d
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 91d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 95d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $76 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $75 109d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records