Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb9…11c2 other 35 markets active 8h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$6
other 26% +$3
world 20% $0
sports 11% −$3
finance 3% −$8
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 26 -4.3% -13.4% 35% 4% -9.8%
all 35 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -10.1%
10% -17.9% 6% -18.7%
15% -25.8% 6% -26.6%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage524d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $84 −$1 -1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $68 −$8 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $221 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $221 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $221 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Army vs. Loyola Maryland Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 5 or more times during Fox News Oval Office in Feb 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $1 +$5 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 8d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 51d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 51d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 51d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 51d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 51d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $84 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records