Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6eb9…54a4 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%59W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.6% -10.9% 53% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 17 -1.6% -10.9% 53% 41% -9.2%
≤90d 105 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 47% -7.4%
all 105 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 47% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 47% -7.4%
10% -18.7% 39% -16.3%
15% -26.5% 24% -24.4%
20% -33.7% 18% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses59 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage90d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $66 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $126 −$33 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $128 +$83 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$18 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 09 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $25 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 09 $30 −$27 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $42 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 09 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 09 $24 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $65 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $86 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $63 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $14 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $126 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $37 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records