Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb5…d941 sports 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,013 (-3%) realized −$946 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 107L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$569
7 days−$569
14 days−$569
30 days−$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$2,657
other 41% +$1,692
crypto 10% −$657
politics 0% −$19
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.8% -47.4% 40% 40% -57.5%
≤30d 12 -36.5% -42.6% 42% 42% -62.7%
≤90d 15 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 40% -53.2%
all 192 -17.6% -25.5% 44% 42% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 42% -13.5%
10% -32.6% 38% -21.8%
15% -39.1% 29% -29.3%
20% -45.1% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$122 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$946
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage223d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $506 −$505 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$23 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $118 +$54 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $129 +$38 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $99 +$17 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $317 −$316 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$40 +80%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 0 Galatasaray SK? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $199 +$68 +34%
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5 Mar 16 $213 +$92 +43%
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $830 +$388 +47%
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $434 −$434 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $131 −$5 -4%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 13 $20 +$24 +117%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $50 +$115 +227%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $251 +$648 +258%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 07 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $109 −$109 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Alanyaspor: O/U 1.5 Mar 01 $132 +$68 +52%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Feb 25 $20 +$12 +59%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5) Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 1.5 Feb 23 $663 +$200 +30%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $235 −$235 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $51 +$23 +45%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Göztepe SK: Both Teams to Score Feb 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Feb 22 $101 +$114 +113%
Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $102 +$48 +47%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 19 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Feb 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $361 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $126 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $22 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $23 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $13 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $17 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $13 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $45 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $6 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $118 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $117 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $99 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 39h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 40h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $218 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $99 16d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 54¢ $89 29d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.64 · official $32.64 (match) · 928 history records