Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6eb1…b027 other 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 897d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,835 (-30%) realized −$15,804 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%102W / 190L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$10,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$117
30 days−$1,013
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$6,004
politics 18% −$7,826
sports 8% −$1,639
world 7% +$30
crypto 5% −$1,059
economics 5% −$552
culture 3% −$180
tech 1% +$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -65.4% -68.7% 25% 12% -80.6%
≤90d 18 -51.4% -56.0% 33% 22% -65.9%
all 292 -27.6% -34.5% 35% 30% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 30% -48.7%
10% -40.7% 28% -53.6%
15% -46.5% 23% -58.1%
20% -51.7% 19% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$129 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

897d coverage
Net worth$10,584
Realized−$15,804
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses102 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)292 / 305
History coverage897d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 60¢ $1,865 $2,709 +$844 (+45%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 55¢ $1,327 $1,340 +$12 (+1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 73¢ 69¢ $1,150 $1,093 −$57 (-5%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 91¢ $766 $916 +$150 (+20%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $1,985 $871 −$1,114 (-56%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $844 $865 +$21 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $700 $711 +$11 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $647 $657 +$10 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 74¢ $534 $608 +$74 (+14%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $470 $481 +$11 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 91¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 91¢ $85 $88 +$3 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $190 −$185 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $389 −$385 -99%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $88 +$6 +7%
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $32 −$32 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? May 28 $960 −$467 -49%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $91 +$17 +18%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $250 +$151 +60%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $862 +$58 +7%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $701 −$699 -100%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,285 −$1,285 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $400 −$390 -98%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 08 $90 +$101 +113%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March? Apr 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $28 +$11 +38%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $85 +$36 +43%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Award Mar 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 08 $300 +$2 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $142 −$142 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 22 $165 −$129 -78%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 22 $380 −$257 -68%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 18 $144 −$34 -24%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars? Feb 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars? Feb 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars? Feb 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 14 $266 +$61 +23%
Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 10 $9 +$2 +19%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Valencia Feb 05 $70 +$18 +26%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $6 +$32 +525%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 04 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 04 $48 −$19 -40%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 29 $48 −$48 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 25 $637 +$27 +4%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 25 $135 −$135 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $1,713 −$201 -12%
Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Award Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 06 $500 −$120 -24%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $57 +$11 +19%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $145 +$50 +34%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $160 +$106 +66%
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Dec 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $6 5m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 6m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $0 7m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $5 30m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $646 2h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $7 11h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $125 12h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $120 12h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $136 15h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $108 22h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $22 22h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $6 23h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $8 23h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $1,200 23h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $18 26h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $64 35h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $457 37h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $14 43h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $7 43h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $6 43h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $4 44h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $37 45h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $11 45h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $207 45h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $139 45h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $130 46h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $130 46h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $56 46h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $844 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,583.97 · official $10,584.13 (match) · 985 history records