Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb1…84b3 politics 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$9
politics 32% +$1
other 24% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 60% 20% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 30% -9.9%
≤90d 10 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 30% -9.9%
all 47 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage318d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $62 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $64 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2 $0 +21%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 28 $59 $0 +1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 19 $7 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $71 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on August 6? Aug 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $59 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $54 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $62 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $62 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $40 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $5 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $35 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $65 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $64 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $52 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $62 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $57 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.86 · official $58.51 (match) · 148 history records