Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eaf…065e crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%96W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$15
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$34
other 3% +$1
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 43% -19.2%
≤30d 40 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 40% -23.6%
≤90d 153 -8.4% -17.1% 63% 35% -18.8%
all 153 -8.4% -17.1% 63% 35% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 35% -18.8%
10% -25.0% 23% -26.5%
15% -32.3% 15% -33.6%
20% -38.9% 14% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses96 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage75d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 14 $11 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $13 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 329 history records