Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6eaf…3282 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$68 (+7%) realized +$62 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$3
other 37% +$69
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.9% +20.2% 100% 67% +13.2%
≤30d 3 +32.9% +20.2% 100% 67% +13.2%
≤90d 3 +32.9% +20.2% 100% 67% +13.2%
all 3 +32.9% +20.2% 100% 67% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 67% +13.2%
10% +8.7% 33% +2.4%
15% -1.8% 33% -7.5%
20% -11.4% 33% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $367 $370 +$3 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $118 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $57 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 22h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 55¢ $118 22h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $209 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $289 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.64 · official $547.21 (match) · 16 history records