Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6eaf…79f2 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$3
world 19% +$11
sports 17% −$24
other 6% −$4
finance 5% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +28.2% +16.0% 54% 23% -7.7%
≤90d 26 +13.7% +2.9% 42% 15% -9.6%
all 31 +12.7% +1.9% 42% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 19% -10.2%
10% -7.8% 13% -18.8%
15% -16.7% 13% -26.6%
20% -24.9% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage535d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $52 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $9 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 +$4 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $109 +$5 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $123 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $190 −$9 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 31 $29 −$5 -17%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $282 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $8 $0 +0%
Columbia vs. Dartmouth Feb 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Denver vs. North Dakota Feb 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 14 $9 +$4 +37%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 04 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $52 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.35 · official $43.23 (match) · 128 history records