Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6eae…1916 crypto 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+6%) realized +$256 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%348W / 84L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$71
14 days+$72
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$126
economics 11% +$180
weather 8% −$13
other 6% −$36
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +12.2% +1.5% 79% 25% -6.3%
≤30d 396 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 396 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 28% -8.3%
all 432 +1.5% -8.2% 81% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 29% -5.3%
10% -17.0% 16% -14.4%
15% -25.0% 9% -22.7%
20% -32.3% 6% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses348 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)432 / 475
History coverage338d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 92¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Yes 95¢ 79¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 87¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 29¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 20m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 20m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 30m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $1 30m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.65 · official $72.65 (match) · 1095 history records