Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ea8…b4a3 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+10%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days+$562
14 days+$290
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$40
sports 38% +$294
crypto 3% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.5% -0.0% 77% 66% +12.7%
≤30d 37 +8.4% -1.9% 76% 65% +1.8%
≤90d 37 +8.4% -1.9% 76% 65% +1.8%
all 37 +8.4% -1.9% 76% 65% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 65% +1.8%
10% -11.3% 54% -7.9%
15% -19.9% 35% -16.8%
20% -27.7% 27% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$57 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage10d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $142 +$110 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$90 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$10 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $81 +$52 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 +$90 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $331 +$40 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $184 +$58 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 −$37 -81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$66 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$69 -68%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $155 +$6 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $278 −$274 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $152 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $152 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $159 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $180 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $17 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $25 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 69¢ $39 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $57 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $164 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $103 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records