Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ea7…092d sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%29W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 24% −$3
other 23% −$4
crypto 10% −$1
economics 4% $0
world 4% +$5
culture 3% $0
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 45 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 177 -0.0% -9.5% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses29 / 148
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage166d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $172 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $190 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $159 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $174 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $118 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $59 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $25 7h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $28 7h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $6 7h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 7d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 7d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 21d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 21d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $51 32d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $51 33d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 76d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $57 76d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 76d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $48 76d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 76d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 77d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $59 77d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $59 77d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 77d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 77d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $54 77d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $54 78d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $55 78d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $55 78d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $55 78d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $55 78d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $57 78d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $57 78d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $54 78d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 615 history records