Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6ea4…9d9a sports 54 markets active 9h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$770 (+7%) realized +$770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$151
14 days−$1,411
30 days−$1,411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$626
other 19% +$151
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.1% -7.7% 45% 45% -18.7%
≤30d 42 -35.4% -41.6% 29% 29% -28.9%
≤90d 42 -35.4% -41.6% 29% 29% -28.9%
all 50 -17.7% -25.6% 38% 38% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -3.3%
10% -32.7% 36% -12.5%
15% -39.2% 34% -21.0%
20% -45.2% 32% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$109 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage635d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $58 +$42 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $109 −$108 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $140 −$138 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $83 +$117 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $176 −$174 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $113 −$112 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $74 +$126 +170%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $86 +$214 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $940 +$1,060 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $295 −$295 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$20 -44%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 12 $1,050 −$560 -53%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 12 $1,500 −$400 -27%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 in November? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $60 in November? Jun 12 $219 −$219 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $500 +$500 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 30 $295 +$205 +70%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $690 +$310 +45%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $1,240 +$760 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $1,640 +$360 +22%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 22 $27 +$33 +122%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $21 +$57 +270%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $57 −$52 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $60 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $58 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $140 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $83 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $28 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $8 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $89 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $52 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $47 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $42 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $0 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $53 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $113 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.50 · official $158.50 (match) · 185 history records