Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6ea4…69ac crypto 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,134 (-7%) realized −$3,135 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%113W / 227L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$6,803
other 1% −$195
sports 1% −$49
world 0% +$115
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -40.0% -45.7% 28% 28% -48.8%
≤30d 58 -42.3% -47.8% 28% 28% -48.7%
≤90d 58 -42.3% -47.8% 28% 28% -48.7%
all 340 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 33% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 33% -30.0%
10% -32.7% 31% -36.7%
15% -39.2% 29% -42.9%
20% -45.1% 26% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$67 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$3,135
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses113 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)340 / 349
History coverage152d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $26 +$26 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 34¢ 10¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-69%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $85 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$38 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$36 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$18 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$32 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$23 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$19 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$36 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$8 -18%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $36 +$18 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 +$51 +73%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$17 -68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $43 +$27 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 −$25 -46%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $87 −$85 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $52 +$36 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.33 · official $365.34 · 1753 history records