Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9f…6561 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,903 (-25%) realized −$1,497 · open −$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$616
7 days−$1,359
14 days−$1,814
30 days−$1,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2,078
sports 33% −$76
crypto 6% −$56
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 40% -33.0%
≤30d 78 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 41% -33.4%
≤90d 78 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 41% -33.4%
all 78 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 41% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 41% -33.4%
10% -27.5% 38% -39.8%
15% -34.5% 29% -45.6%
20% -40.9% 24% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$79 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$1,497
Unrealized−$406
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 45
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 88
History coverage9d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $609 +$24 +4%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $17 +$24 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $493 −$464 -94%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $214 −$210 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 +$15 +24%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $99 +$105 +107%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$11 +216%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$15 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$15 +26%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $52 +$24 +46%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $74 −$72 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$16 +30%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $54 +$43 +78%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $395 −$390 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $254 +$355 +139%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $240 −$235 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$141 +550%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $217 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $142 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $203 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $299 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $479 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $506 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? BUY 32¢ $40 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $17 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $493 47h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 67¢ $239 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi BUY 49¢ $48 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 44¢ $88 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $76 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 47¢ $77 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 31¢ $52 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 48¢ $99 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.17 · official $296.21 (match) · 166 history records