Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9e…02b7 world 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,941 (+1%) realized +$2,389 · open +$552
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%91W / 23L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2,027per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$218
14 days−$102
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$652
other 11% +$215
finance 7% +$97
politics 5% +$276
sports 2% +$1,167
tech 1% +$55
economics 0% +$9
crypto 0% +$11
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +170.7% +144.9% 60% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 42 +52.6% +38.0% 76% 21% -8.4%
≤90d 89 +24.8% +13.0% 78% 15% -9.2%
all 114 +25.6% +13.6% 80% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 15% -8.9%
10% +2.7% 6% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -7.2% 4% -25.5%
20% -16.3% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$45 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$8,976
Realized+$2,389
Unrealized+$552
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses91 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions27
Markets (closed)114 / 136
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$2,027
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,911 $1,995 +$84 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 88¢ $814 $973 +$159 (+20%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $583 $586 +$4 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $422 $478 +$56 (+13%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 99¢ $389 $395 +$6 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $356 $395 +$40 (+11%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $380 $383 +$3 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $293 $299 +$7 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 100¢ $249 $299 +$50 (+20%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $255 $298 +$44 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $288 $295 +$7 (+3%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $288 $292 +$3 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $235 $248 +$13 (+6%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $246 $239 −$7 (-3%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 98¢ 95¢ $245 $239 −$6 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $186 $199 +$13 (+7%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $174 $188 +$14 (+8%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 77¢ 94¢ $154 $188 +$34 (+22%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $186 $180 −$5 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $156 $173 +$17 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $147 $152 +$5 (+3%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $129 $150 +$21 (+16%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 78¢ 75¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-3%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 44¢ $98 $87 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 25 $1 −$243 -39498%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Jun 25 $0 +$20 +12845%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $971 +$29 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $820 +$20 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $158 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $370 −$38 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $344 +$63 +18%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $90 +$30 +33%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $326 +$24 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $295 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $481 +$12 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $316 +$16 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $426 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $509 −$13 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $238 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $58 −$4 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $134 −$35 -26%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 09 $1,618 +$17 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $15,678 +$88 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $986 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $92 +$16 +17%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $567 +$20 +4%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$20 +20%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +413%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $130 +$10 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $198 +$8 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $228 +$22 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $264 +$36 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $988 +$12 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,448 +$52 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? May 29 $233 −$41 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $348 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $147 −$91 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $162 +$33 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $152 −$46 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $276 +$16 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1,091 +$40 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 19 $230 +$70 +30%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 15 $188 +$12 +6%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $47 −$8 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $139 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $91 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $7 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $18 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $69 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $245 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $92 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $583 2d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 3d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 3d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 3d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $840 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $288 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $820 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $66 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $132 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,975.53 · official $8,975.01 (match) · 3500 history records