Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9e…208c sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-6%) realized −$212 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$47
14 days−$94
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$250
other 40% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% -33.3%
≤30d 47 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 32% -15.2%
≤90d 76 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 30% -17.1%
all 76 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 30% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 30% -17.1%
10% -19.3% 22% -25.0%
15% -27.1% 21% -32.3%
20% -34.3% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 46
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions9
Markets (closed)76 / 85
History coverage54d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico leading at halftime? No 65¢ 66¢ $176 $178 +$1 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 33¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+6%)
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand Malaysia 89¢ 100¢ $61 $68 +$7 (+12%)
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 +$76 +206%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 +$4 +17%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$38 +1845%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $19 −$19 -97%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 04 $65 +$34 +52%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 03 $31 +$21 +67%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $58 −$57 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -97%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $30 −$30 -97%
Real Racing Club leading at halftime? Jun 01 $7 +$6 +83%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $16 +$34 +216%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $9 +$11 +124%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $49 +$2 +5%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Poland (-2.5) May 30 $18 −$18 -97%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 0.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 May 30 $49 −$49 -99%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 28 $6 +$17 +276%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Kittay/Ram vs Bublik/Shevchenko May 26 $163 −$3 -2%
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 0.5 May 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek May 25 $374 +$8 +2%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 0.5 May 25 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $19 +$2 +13%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 May 24 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $26 +$19 +73%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Mali May 24 $142 +$3 +2%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $222 +$35 +16%
Kecmanovic vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 23.5 May 18 $11 $0 -2%
Kecmanovic vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5 May 18 $13 $0 -2%
Hamburg European Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Karen Khachanov May 18 $13 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $130 1h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 14h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 89¢ $27 14h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 88¢ $11 14h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 88¢ $11 14h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 91¢ $12 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 14h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $48 15h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 17h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $4 19h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $81 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $3 39h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 13¢ $6 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 15¢ $58 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 18¢ $44 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 18¢ $10 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 18¢ $17 4d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $13 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 32¢ $37 8d
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 9d
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $12 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 68¢ $28 10d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes $13 10d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes $7 11d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes $2 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 12d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.22 · official $577.22 (match) · 148 history records