Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e9b…526c other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$414 (+6%) realized +$417 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$179
14 days+$96
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$28
sports 14% +$201
world 7% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -35.7% -41.9% 50% 40% -25.1%
≤30d 27 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 70% +0.3%
≤90d 38 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 74% -4.7%
all 38 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 74% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 74% -4.7%
10% -21.2% 42% -13.8%
15% -28.8% 16% -22.1%
20% -35.8% 5% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$116 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$417
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage44d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $501 +$54 +11%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $202 +$65 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $201 +$58 +29%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13? May 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-11? May 19 $503 −$503 -100%
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $149 +$17 +11%
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $201 +$29 +14%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $201 +$22 +11%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $202 +$69 +34%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $151 +$26 +17%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $322 +$88 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $503 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 95¢ $300 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $101 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $201 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $100 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $101 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $71 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $501 7d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 75¢ $202 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 84¢ $100 9d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 79¢ $201 9d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 82¢ $201 11d
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 74¢ $202 15d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 86¢ $100 17d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 64¢ $202 18d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 88¢ $201 20d
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 73¢ $202 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 77¢ $201 25d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 79¢ $101 25d
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 73¢ $101 26d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 78¢ $101 26d
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 90¢ $149 32d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 78¢ $101 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.99 · official $496.99 (match) · 73 history records