Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9a…acd6 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% $0
economics 19% $0
world 18% $0
other 15% +$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 22 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage420d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 25 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 16h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $10 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $3 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $5 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $8 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $41 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $41 22d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 356d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $8 374d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 97¢ $8 375d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 97¢ $8 377d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? SELL No 97¢ $8 377d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? BUY No 97¢ $8 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records