trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $25 | $24 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 18¢ | 2¢ | $129 | $14 | −$115 (-89%) |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $140 | $0 | −$140 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 19 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Apr 18 | $75 | −$29 | -38% |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Apr 18 | $25 | −$12 | -49% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Apr 15 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio | Apr 12 | $140 | −$140 | -100% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $50 | +$9 | +18% |
| Will Trump say "Power" or "Strength" during Monday news conference? | Apr 07 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Feb 04 | $100 | +$36 | +36% |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio | Jan 18 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31? | Jan 03 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | Jan 03 | $116 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 03 | $117 | +$21 | +18% |
| Will the Liberation Day tariff policy be the #1 searched news on Googl | Dec 04 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this y | Dec 04 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Dec 02 | $200 | +$12 | +6% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | Nov 19 | $24 | −$10 | -41% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential | Nov 17 | $200 | +$6 | +3% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Nov 17 | $145 | +$17 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 9 | -38.3% | -44.2% | 44% | 22% | -33.9% |
| all | 20 | -14.1% | -22.3% | 70% | 30% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.3% | 30% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -29.7% | 5% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -36.5% | 5% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 0% | -35.2% |