Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e7f…53e2 sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%75W / 51L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$240
crypto 19% +$340
other 18% −$47
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 62% +3.0%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 71% 35% -11.8%
all 126 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -9.4%
10% -16.5% 17% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 13% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$56 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses75 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage214d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $71 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $59 +$10 +17%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $2 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $52 +$6 +11%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $43 +$6 +15%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 17 $45 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 18 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 11 $42 −$1 -1%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 23 $100 −$54 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 19 $50 −$1 -2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 15 $4,950 +$217 +4%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 13 $5,022 +$42 +1%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 10 $5 $0 +1%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 09 $5,012 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 08 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 4) Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 27 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 25 $5 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $8,221 −$625 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 22 $15 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 18 $843 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 18 $815 +$24 +3%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $804 +$16 +2%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $748 +$57 +8%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 16 $1,373 +$95 +7%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs USA (Game 1) Feb 15 $653 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $623 +$27 +4%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Ireland (Game 1) Feb 11 $626 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 11 $742 +$15 +2%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10? Feb 10 $5 $0 +2%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 10 $533 +$78 +15%
T20 World Cup: India vs USA (Game 1) Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 07 $299 $0 +0%
WPL: Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women vs Delhi Capitals Women Feb 05 $537 +$79 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 05 $448 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 05 $455 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $85 1h
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 83¢ $71 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 85¢ $59 21d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 95¢ $2 24d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 90¢ $52 26d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 17¢ $11 27d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 15¢ $10 27d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 87¢ $12 29d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 87¢ $31 29d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 99¢ $45 32d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 47¢ $19 36d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals BUY Punjab Kings 61¢ $19 36d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Chennai Super Kings 95¢ $20 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 38d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Rajasthan Royals 99¢ $41 70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 33¢ $1 70d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $5 77d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $10 77d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes $46 86d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 90d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 93¢ $1,881 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $101 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $99 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $99 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $59 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Bangladesh 94¢ $275 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.96 · official $84.96 (match) · 549 history records