Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e7d…b41b other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,528 (+2%) realized +$1,528 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$20
30 days+$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$56
other 40% +$1,367
sports 12% +$204
world 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +3.5% -6.4% 14% 5% -7.5%
≤90d 94 -13.4% -21.7% 12% 6% -9.9%
all 119 -4.7% -13.8% 19% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 13% -8.1%
10% -22.0% 13% -16.9%
15% -29.6% 11% -24.9%
20% -36.5% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,244) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$14 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$809
Realized+$1,528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage126d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $809 $809 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $4,368 −$7 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,054 −$5 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,940 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,872 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $83 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $698 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,244 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $869 +$655 +75%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,418 −$4 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $933 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,720 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $486 +$1 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $499 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,221 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,483 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,882 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $428 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $664 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $404 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $1,767 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $2,004 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $357 24h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $357 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $340 42h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $340 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $809 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,357 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,359 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,571 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,573 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,475 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,477 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,577 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,496 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,499 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,308 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,310 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,281 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,283 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $692 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $693 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $809.03 · official $809.03 (match) · 397 history records