Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e7b…bcbc
world · 324 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$195 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$765
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses153 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)311 / 324
History coverage167d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 12 History 311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$108
14 days+$64
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 69¢ 79¢ $359 $409 +$49 (+14%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? No 92¢ 97¢ $74 $78 +$4 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 79¢ $73 $66 −$7 (-9%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 87¢ 94¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 82¢ 76¢ $61 $56 −$5 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 72¢ 60¢ $58 $49 −$9 (-16%)
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? No 69¢ 83¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
New Half-Life game by June 30? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-70%)
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? No 79¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? No 65¢ 46¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week? No 64¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $13 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +4%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 03 $72 −$8 -11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $98 +$102 +105%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 01 $20 −$1 -3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $202 +$44 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 29 $61 +$4 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 +$9 +28%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $49 +$6 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $92 +$3 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $10 −$4 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $40 +$20 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $52 −$9 -16%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? May 24 $61 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $97 +$111 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $36 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $21 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $123 +$8 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $281 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $44 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$857
other 24% −$468
crypto 15% −$81
politics 3% +$93
sports 2% −$269
finance 2% −$75
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $6 4m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 71¢ $17 38m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 39m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 39m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 77¢ $18 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $20 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 78¢ $77 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 79¢ $48 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 93¢ $9 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $14 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 74¢ $4 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 73¢ $4 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 59¢ $5 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.5% -42.5% 11% 11% -49.8%
≤30d 58 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 26% -1.2%
≤90d 177 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 25% -17.1%
all 311 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 27% -9.4%
10% -22.8% 16% -18.1%
15% -30.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -37.1% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.73 · official $764.73 (match) · 1335 history records