Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e77…5b55 politics 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$14
other 42% −$12
sports 7% −$55
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 8% 3% -9.7%
all 122 -6.6% -15.5% 9% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -23.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage116d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $173 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $371 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $435 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $443 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 17h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 41h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 46h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 22d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records