Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e77…a6bd sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,660 (-13%) realized −$1,378 · open −$282
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,743
7 days−$2,000
14 days−$1,755
30 days−$1,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,030
other 32% −$1,012
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.1% -30.4% 46% 46% -31.9%
≤30d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 45% 42% -24.2%
≤90d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 45% 42% -24.2%
all 33 -25.2% -32.3% 45% 42% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 42% -24.2%
10% -38.8% 33% -31.4%
15% -44.7% 27% -38.1%
20% -50.1% 18% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$246 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized−$282
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage150d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 17¢ $500 $230 −$270 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $506 +$301 +60%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $409 −$400 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $502 +$58 +12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$156 +153%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$16 +159%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $503 +$130 +26%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $505 +$251 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $505 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$92 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 +$134 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 −$194 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $200 +$388 +194%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,000 +$134 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 12 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,000 +$134 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $509 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $508 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $509 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $409 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $508 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $510 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $506 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $506 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $502 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 85¢ $118 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $102 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 98¢ $756 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $503 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $505 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $404 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $101 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $10 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $26 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 86¢ $639 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $505 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $303 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,217.94 · official $1,217.94 (match) · 56 history records