Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e74…5bfe world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$26
other 29% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 5 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 5 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
all 5 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -11.4%
10% -23.8% 0% -19.9%
15% -31.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -37.9% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $447 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 26 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $465 −$5 -1%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $70 −$20 -29%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun Jun 20 $77 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records