Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e73…8294
other · 165 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$130 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses52 / 76
Open positions37
Markets (closed)128 / 165
History coverage138d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 37 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$32
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 89¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39 +$22 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $35 +$16 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $14 +$26 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $46 +$12 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $16 −$10 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $16 +$45 +277%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $12 −$6 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $32 +$34 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $47 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 −$7 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $20 −$16 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $14 −$8 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $28 +$25 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $17 +$42 +243%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $57 −$54 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $7 −$6 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $3 +$7 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$153
politics 24% +$2
sports 14% −$2
world 8% −$2
tech 6% +$4
finance 3% +$3
economics 3% +$1
weather 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 18¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.2% -34.2% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 39 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 26% -3.0%
≤90d 117 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 13% -11.1%
all 128 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 12% -10.7%
10% -32.4% 10% -19.2%
15% -38.9% 9% -27.0%
20% -44.9% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.98 · official $72.98 (match) · 683 history records