Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e71…5436 weather 1691 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1666W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% −$28
other 12% −$1
culture 3% +$3
sports 3% −$47
tech 3% +$2
politics 2% +$2
finance 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$15
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤30d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤90d 1690 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.7%
all 1690 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1666 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1690 / 1691
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +121%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 K Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 K Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 11? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 11? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of t Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will "Project Hail Mary" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Bonk Guy mindshare all time high by March 31? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on Apr Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 11 Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 11 Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 11 Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 11 Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on April 1 Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 11? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11 Apr 12 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $23 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 50d
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 20 SELL No 100¢ $30 51d
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 K SELL No 100¢ $30 51d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 K SELL No 100¢ $30 51d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 66d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 66d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 11? SELL No 79¢ $24 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 11 BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 11? BUY No 99¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or higher on April 11 BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 3500 history records