Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e70…b51c crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%47W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$24
world 27% +$28
other 16% −$63
economics 7% +$15
politics 7% +$43
tech 6% +$7
sports 3% +$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 49 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$36 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses47 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage611d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $260 $261 +$1 (+1%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $105 $109 +$4 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 08 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 15 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 15 $277 +$4 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? Apr 19 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29? Apr 12 $360 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 27 $150 +$4 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 2 above $480? Mar 03 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Mar 03 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $214 +$5 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $140 +$4 +3%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 03 $368 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 21 $130 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 08 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 December 1-7? Dec 25 $140 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 25 $350 +$2 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $5 in November? Dec 03 $490 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 16? Nov 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16? Nov 27 $360 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 16 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? Nov 07 $255 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 22 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 11? Oct 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will Opensea launch a token by September 30? Oct 11 $90 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $155 +$6 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting? Sep 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? Sep 10 $130 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 05 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Jul 26 $130 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on July 23? Jul 26 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin above $108,000 on July 14? Jul 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be Jul 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 12 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Labor win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? Jun 05 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? May 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? May 03 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Northwest Territories seat in th May 03 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Apr 16 $240 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 25 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 16 $150 $0 -0%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Dec 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? Nov 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $239 +$40 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $105 16d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $160 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $260 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $171 41d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $200 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $160 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $240 67d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? BUY Yes 99¢ $250 74d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $277 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29? BUY No 99¢ $360 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $150 114d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 114d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $155 114d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $214 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $200 142d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 2 above $480? BUY No 99¢ $104 142d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $140 155d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $368 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? BUY No 99¢ $130 168d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $500 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $350 204d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 December 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $140 204d
Will Chainlink dip to $5 in November? BUY No 99¢ $490 210d
Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16? BUY No 99¢ $360 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 221d
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? BUY No 100¢ $250 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 246d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? SELL No 99¢ $162 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.71 · official $542.71 (match) · 106 history records