Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e68…ff8a crypto 1403 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-2%) realized −$139 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%750W / 652L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$212
other 8% −$52
sports 1% −$8
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 18% -8.8%
≤30d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 18% -8.8%
≤90d 1224 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 50% -13.4%
all 1402 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 51% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 51% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -21.5%
15% -31.0% 28% -29.1%
20% -37.8% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses750 / 652
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1402 / 1403
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Yes 30¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +347%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$2 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$2 +59%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$3 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$3 +156%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$4 +278%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 22 $4 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 21 $4 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$3 +165%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $15 +$6 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 58m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 76¢ $15 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 85¢ $17 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $9 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 14h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $8 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $0 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 21h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $2 22h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 18¢ $6 22h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $2 23h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $2 23h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $3 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 26h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 37h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $4.18 (match) · 3500 history records