Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6e63…1ced sports 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,037 (-1%) realized −$1,012 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%89W / 233L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$314
7 days−$80
14 days−$484
30 days−$2,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,545
other 5% +$2,490
culture 1% −$468
world 1% −$336
crypto 1% −$189
politics 0% −$240
tech 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 27% -16.5%
≤30d 35 -36.6% -42.6% 23% 20% -45.3%
≤90d 70 -27.5% -34.4% 23% 21% -29.0%
all 322 -12.8% -21.1% 28% 27% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 27% -10.8%
10% -28.7% 26% -19.3%
15% -35.6% 25% -27.1%
20% -41.9% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$614 vs −$240 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$712
Realized−$1,012
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses89 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions5
Markets (closed)322 / 327
History coverage425d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $257 $263 +$6 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $170 $207 +$37 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $110 −$30 (-21%)
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes $120 $94 −$26 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $146 +$131 +90%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $123 +$255 +207%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$78 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $108 −$105 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$135 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $266 +$663 +250%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $369 −$360 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,301 −$404 -31%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 06 $185 +$18 +10%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $123 −$120 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 03 $247 −$240 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? May 28 $240 −$143 -59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $552 −$540 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $552 −$540 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $368 −$360 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $369 −$360 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $367 −$360 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,161 +$102 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $428 −$420 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $584 −$570 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $276 −$270 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $369 +$1,346 +365%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $613 −$600 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $675 −$660 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $306 −$300 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $338 −$330 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $368 −$360 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $429 −$420 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $368 +$1,197 +325%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $337 +$695 +206%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $306 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 71¢ $372 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $154 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $146 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $66 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes $15 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $15 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $108 5d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $21 5d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Spurs 17¢ $57 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $266 7d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Spurs 21¢ $369 7d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Serie BUY Yes $123 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $82 9d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Spurs 21¢ $102 9d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 10d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $102 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 24¢ $552 12d
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) SELL Knicks 16¢ $193 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.10 · official $712.10 (match) · 531 history records