Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6E 0x6e63…2f2a other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$21 (-10%) realized +$29 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+4.8%	-5.2%	50%	50%	-1.5%
≤30d	2	+4.8%	-5.2%	50%	50%	-1.5%
≤90d	2	+4.8%	-5.2%	50%	50%	-1.5%
all	2	+4.8%	-5.2%	50%	50%	-1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.2%	50%	-1.5%
10%	-14.3%	0%	-11.0%
15%	-22.5%	0%	-19.6%
20%	-30.1%	0%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$82	$33	−$49 (-60%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	87¢	84¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Jun 28	$10	−$1	-8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$20	+$3	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$36	1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$50	2h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$4	16h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$5	17h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	SELL No	28¢	$9	17h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$23	17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	BUY Yes	87¢	$25	29h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	BUY No	29¢	$10	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$30	29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY No	85¢	$20	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.75 · official $122.75 (match) · 11 history records