Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e63…9e38 sports 635 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,363 (+2%) realized +$13,363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%455W / 204L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$884per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$582est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,101
7 days−$1,101
14 days+$351
30 days+$2,977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$12,888
politics 15% $0
other 6% +$148
crypto 1% −$708
world 1% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.4% -13.5% 15% 15% -45.8%
≤30d 133 -2.7% -12.0% 58% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 364 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 43% -6.1%
all 659 +0.5% -9.1% 69% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 34% -7.8%
10% -17.8% 24% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 18% -24.7%
20% -33.0% 14% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$117 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13,363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses455 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$582
Open positions0
Markets (closed)659 / 635
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$884
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 659 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Tundra Esports Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs. Yakult Brothers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs. YkBros Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Wildcard Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Trailer Park Boys (BO3) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. PARIVISION Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Wildcard Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Kukuys - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Jun 15 $1 +$14 +2379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Nemesis Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Natus Vincere Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $381 −$381 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Team Liquid Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Heroic Jun 15 $468 −$447 -95%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs. BOOM Esports Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $585 +$173 +30%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $488 +$162 +33%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$110 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $338 −$335 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $203 +$147 +72%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $240 +$260 +108%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $148 −$148 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,559 +$946 +37%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $537 −$528 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $566 +$84 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $118 −$115 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,833 +$124 +7%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $226 −$224 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4,452 +$45 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $307 +$16 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $280 +$128 +46%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $5,294 +$764 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,441 +$1,041 +72%
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 04 $4,417 +$134 +3%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $29,608 −$508 -2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $844 −$844 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $118 +$66 +56%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $78 −$77 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $2,408 +$129 +5%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $99 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $758 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $144 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $221 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $649 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 75¢ $112 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 75¢ $375 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $207 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 46¢ $97 16h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 67¢ $338 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $350 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 58¢ $203 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 43¢ $108 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $140 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $7 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $227 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $6 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $912 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $912 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records