Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e61…931b weather 1066 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-0%) realized +$6 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%974W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$259
14 days−$317
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 630 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 1035 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 1035 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$42 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$2,106
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses974 / 61
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1035 / 1066
History coverage59d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1035 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $177 $185 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $151 $153 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $81 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $77 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $75 $77 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $54 $56 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 96¢ 98¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 96¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? No 95¢ 93¢ $48 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $154 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $164 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $108 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $136 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $173 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $84 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $28 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $141 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $30 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $18 37m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.18 · official $2,104.53 (match) · 2917 history records